From Field to Forecast: Inside Eagle Badger’s Election Polling Process

When voters speak, Eagle Badger listens carefully. But listening alone isn’t enough, our work lies in transforming thousands of scattered responses into clear, reliable insights that campaigns, policymakers, and citizens can trust. This is how we move from field to forecast, ensuring that every poll we conduct meets the highest standards of integrity and usefulness.

Step 1: Asking the Right Questions

Every poll begins not with numbers, but with problems. We start by understanding the political and social issues shaping voter sentiment. From there, we design survey questions that cut through the noise to capture real voter concerns.

·         Questions are:

·         Culturally sensitive, using the language respondents are most comfortable with.

·         Focused, designed to measure approval, voter intention, turnout obstacles, and issue salience.

·         Practical, framed in a way that respondents can easily relate to their daily experiences.

Step 2: Collecting the Data

Fieldwork is at the core of our process. For example, in our July 2024 Edo Governorship Poll, we reached over 1,312 registered voters through telephone interviews, completing 1,089 valid responses.

·         Key features of our collection approach:

·         Proportionate, stratified random sampling across LGAs, age groups, and gender using INEC published demography data for accuracy.

·         Language accessibility: interviews conducted in English, Bini, Esan etc. or whichever language best suits respondents.

·         Field validation: completion rates and refusals tracked to ensure representativeness.

Step 3: Testing for Accuracy

Poll reliability is non-negotiable. We employ rigorous test-retest reliability checks, administering the same survey in randomly selected LGAs twice within 48 hours. Consistency rates above 0.5 confirm strong reliability.

·         We also maintain strict standards:

·         95% confidence level

·         ±3% margin of error

Step 4: Turning Data into Insight

Once data collection is complete, the real work begins. Our analysts apply a mix of quantitative modelling and contextual calibration, ensuring that numbers make sense both statistically and politically.

·         In the Edo poll, this meant:

·         Identifying Voter friction points that could suppress turnout.

·         Measuring likely voter blocs using a scoring system based on past behaviour, PVC collection, and willingness to vote under adverse conditions.

·         Mapping LGA-level vote shares to highlight regional strengths and weaknesses for each candidate.

Step 5: Making Complexity Simple

Data loses its power if it can’t be understood. That’s why Eagle Badger invests in reporting that simplifies complexity.

·         Our reports translate thousands of survey responses into:

·         Clear visuals: LGA maps, charts, and graphs.

·         Actionable narratives: plain-language explanations of what the numbers mean for strategy.

·         Decision tools: scenario simulations to show how changes in turnout or messaging could shift outcomes.

Why This Matters

In Africa’s fast-moving political landscape, unreliable data can lead to wasted resources, misguided strategy, and lost elections. At Eagle Badger, our commitment to integrity, precision, and clarity ensures that every forecast is not just accurate, but actionable.

From the first phone call to the final chart, our process is built to give campaigns the one thing they need most: confidence.

📊 Eagle Badger Data Analytics — Turning voter voices into political foresight.