Building the Stability Index: Inside Eagle Badger’s Mission to Quantify Risk in West Africa

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How do you measure something as complex as national stability? At Eagle Badger, we’ve spent years answering that question so you don’t have to.

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Why We Built the Stability Index

Across West Africa, decision-makers: from policymakers to investors and NGOs face a common challenge: navigating uncertain terrain without timely, reliable, or actionable insights. Stability is often talked about, rarely measured, and almost never predicted with enough foresight to make a difference. We built the Eagle Badger Stability Index to change that. Our goal was simple but ambitious: create a real-time, multidimensional view of stability across ECOWAS countries that could serve as both an early warning system and a strategic compass for action. The Q2 2025 edition marks a major milestone in that journey with some surprising insights.

Eight Years in the Making

The Stability Index wasn’t developed overnight. It’s the product of eight years of historical analysis, thousands of data points, and countless iterations designed to capture the full spectrum of stability from predictable economic shifts to sudden social unrest. Each quarterly update is powered by a dynamic engine built to adapt to real-world complexity. What sets our Index apart is not just the data it draws on, but the deliberate architecture of its design:

- It avoids the trap of overfitting to short-term political cycles.

- It integrates social, economic, political, and environmental factors because instability is never one-dimensional.

- It weights inputs based on predictive power, not popularity.

The result? A system that flags trouble before it hits the front pages.

From Instability to Insight

The latest Index ranked Cape Verde, Benin, and Senegal as the most stable countries in the ECOWAS region. At the other end of the spectrum, Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso are grappling with deep structural risks although Nigeria did register a remarkable 8.3-point improvement over the last year, thanks in part to a decline in terrorism-related incidents. But beyond rankings, it’s the relationships that matter. We’ve uncovered strong signals between internal displacement and future instability, with a 91% probability that spikes in displacement predict worsening conditions in the following 3–6 months. Our analysis also confirmed what many suspected but hadn’t quantified: countries with frequent coups experience a sharp drop in economic growth for up to two years post-transition. These insights don’t just inform they empower.

Built for Action, Not Just Observation

The Stability Index isn’t a static report. It’s a living tool designed to support:

- Early warning systems in regions prone to displacement and unrest.

- Investment risk analysis tailored to local political and economic dynamics.

- Policy planning that responds to real data, not gut feelings.

The Road Ahead

We’re not stopping here. Over the next year, we plan to expand the Index with more granular subnational data, especially in countries with emerging hotspots. Our IDP tracking capabilities are being enhanced to detect shifts in near real time, and we’re piloting interactive dashboards to help partners visualize changes as they happen. At Eagle Badger, we believe the future of decision-making in West Africa lies at the intersection of data, context, and courage. The Stability Index is just one of the tools we’re building to light the way. If you’d like to partner with us or put the Index to work in your strategy contact us https://www.eaglebadger.com/contact-8